Wave Differentials
The 12th event of the 2024/25 season is in the books after the completion of the Webex Players Series Victoria event down at Rosebud CC on the Mornington Peninsula. We saw Michael Wright came away with his first win ranked by the OWGR (second pro win), nudging out Jak Carter who unfortunately missed out in a playoff for a third time this season.
The main element that keeps me interested in early tournament rounds is calculating the stroke average of each side of the draw and comparing the difference between each of these waves. Essentially this will tell us how difficult the golf course played in the morning versus the afternoon. Typically we will see afternoon rounds play tougher as the wind picks up in the afternoon.
In the first round at Rosebud on Thursday, the wind was only forecast to slightly increase for the afternoon rounds - but that was not what occurred. There was a dramatic increase at 2pm where we saw the wind average jump from approximately 15kph up to 45kph+ (gusting to 55kph). The early wave made it through with an average of 69.81 strokes (male 68.81 & female 71.130), the carnage started and we saw the late wave average 71.65 strokes (male 70.29 & female 73.57) which was 1.84 strokes higher (male +1.48 & female +2.44).
Earlier in the season we saw an even larger wave differential at the Queensland PGA Championship. The early wave got around a tough Nudgee GC with an average of 73.52, but again, carnage in the afternoon for the late wave. By the end of the day their average was 76.17, which 2.65 strokes more than the opposite side.
I often hear complaints from players about being on the wrong side of the draw, so I decided to rank the tour based only on their wave differential average. I’ve included only players that have played at least ten round 1s + rounds 2 (five events). The “Wave Differential Average” is how much easier or difficult the opposite side of the draw has played per round.
Riley Taylor’s figure of +0.664 means that, on average, his side of the draw has play 0.664 strokes harder per round than the opposite side. Those with a negative figure have played on easier sides of the draw (on average).
| Rank | Player | Wave Differential Average | Total R1&R2s |
| 1 | Riley Taylor | +0.664 | 12 |
| 2 | Aaron Townsend | +0.608 | 16 |
| 3 | Neven Basic | +0.606 | 14 |
| 4 | Will Florimo | +0.601 | 14 |
| 5 | Brett Drewitt | +0.576 | 10 |
| 6 | Shae Wools-Cobb | +0.568 | 18 |
| 7 | Chris Crabtree | +0.492 | 22 |
| 8 | Austin Bautista | +0.455 | 16 |
| 9 | James Mee | +0.407 | 18 |
| 10 | Tyler Duncan | +0.367 | 16 |
| 11 | Jasper Stubbs | +0.349 | 16 |
| 12 | Kade McBride | +0.334 | 16 |
| 13 | Nathan Barbieri | +0.301 | 24 |
| 14 | Ben Eccles | +0.295 | 20 |
| 15 | Toby Walker | +0.287 | 18 |
| 16 | James Grierson | +0.268 | 12 |
| 17 | Alexander Simpson | +0.267 | 12 |
| 18 | Blake Windred | +0.267 | 20 |
| 19 | Matthew Millar | +0.243 | 12 |
| 20 | Blake Proverbs | +0.224 | 23 |
| 21 | Matthew Stenson | +0.217 | 12 |
| 22 | Lucas Higgins | +0.197 | 19 |
| 23 | Phoenix Campbell | +0.197 | 16 |
| 24 | Braden Becker | +0.180 | 24 |
| 25 | Alex Edge | +0.171 | 18 |
| 26 | Kerry Mountcastle | +0.169 | 18 |
| 27 | Lachlan Aylen | +0.162 | 12 |
| 28 | Josh Clarke | +0.139 | 14 |
| 29 | Scott Strange | +0.132 | 12 |
| 30 | Jason Norris | +0.124 | 14 |
| 31 | Tim Hart | +0.122 | 24 |
| 32 | Andrew Campbell | +0.113 | 18 |
| 33 | Gavin Fairfax | +0.112 | 18 |
| 34 | Harry Hillier | +0.112 | 10 |
| 35 | James Conran | +0.105 | 20 |
| 36 | Aaron Pike | +0.104 | 16 |
| 37 | Blaike Perkins | +0.097 | 10 |
| 38 | Jake Meenhorst | +0.084 | 16 |
| 39 | Connor McDade | +0.083 | 20 |
| 40 | Quinnton Croker | +0.074 | 12 |
| 41 | Josh Armstrong | +0.070 | 24 |
| 42 | Matt Dowling | +0.069 | 10 |
| 43 | Jack Pountney | +0.066 | 20 |
| 44 | Christopher Wood | +0.062 | 22 |
| 45 | Cameron John | +0.051 | 16 |
| 46 | Ryan Ang | +0.046 | 18 |
| 47 | Elvis Smylie | +0.038 | 14 |
| 48 | Dillon Hart | +0.038 | 18 |
| 49 | Peter Cooke | +0.037 | 10 |
| 50 | Darcy Boyd | +0.036 | 16 |
| 50 | Jack McLeod | +0.036 | 16 |
| 52 | Andrew Richards | +0.031 | 18 |
| 53 | Ben Ferguson | +0.031 | 20 |
| 54 | Lincoln Tighe | +0.028 | 20 |
| 55 | Matias Sanchez | +0.028 | 18 |
| 56 | Denzel Ieremia | +0.002 | 14 |
| 57 | Jake McLeod | -0.001 | 22 |
| 58 | Bradley Kivimets | -0.006 | 14 |
| 59 | Damon Stephenson | -0.006 | 10 |
| 60 | Jarryd Felton | -0.008 | 20 |
| 61 | Daniel Gale | -0.009 | 10 |
| 62 | Dylan Gardner | -0.012 | 18 |
| 63 | Jack Chrystie | -0.013 | 10 |
| 64 | Matthew Siporin | -0.024 | 16 |
| 65 | Kyle Michel | -0.026 | 16 |
| 66 | Corey Lamb | -0.029 | 22 |
| 67 | Connor McKinney | -0.030 | 14 |
| 68 | Louis Dobbelaar | -0.035 | 24 |
| 69 | Ben Wharton | -0.037 | 18 |
| 70 | Dimitrios Papadatos | -0.038 | 17 |
| 71 | Jay Mackenzie | -0.043 | 20 |
| 72 | Adam Brady | -0.048 | 24 |
| 73 | Jye Pickin | -0.052 | 22 |
| 74 | Adam Bland | -0.056 | 12 |
| 75 | Tyler Hodge | -0.056 | 18 |
| 76 | Andrew Martin | -0.059 | 10 |
| 77 | William Bruyeres | -0.063 | 20 |
| 78 | Andre Lautee | -0.074 | 16 |
| 79 | Andrew Evans | -0.085 | 16 |
| 80 | Edward Donoghue | -0.089 | 18 |
| 81 | James Marchesani | -0.092 | 22 |
| 82 | Max Charles | -0.097 | 22 |
| 83 | Darcy Brereton | -0.100 | 22 |
| 84 | Jak Carter | -0.100 | 18 |
| 85 | Ryan Peake | -0.113 | 24 |
| 86 | Lachlan Barker | -0.114 | 16 |
| 87 | Joseph Owen | -0.124 | 12 |
| 88 | Joshua Greer | -0.125 | 18 |
| 89 | Charlie Robbins | -0.128 | 16 |
| 90 | Nathan Page | -0.129 | 18 |
| 91 | Harry Goakes | -0.129 | 12 |
| 92 | Aiden Didone | -0.139 | 18 |
| 93 | Kit Bittle | -0.149 | 18 |
| 94 | Harrison Crowe | -0.152 | 10 |
| 95 | Jack Buchanan | -0.157 | 20 |
| 96 | Cory Crawford | -0.160 | 22 |
| 97 | Brett Rumford | -0.179 | 10 |
| 98 | Josh Younger | -0.179 | 16 |
| 99 | Brett Rankin | -0.184 | 18 |
| 100 | Jordan Doull | -0.184 | 24 |
| 101 | Anthony Quayle | -0.188 | 16 |
| 102 | Rick Kulacz | -0.204 | 10 |
| 103 | Andrew Kelly | -0.208 | 16 |
| 104 | Ben Henkel | -0.211 | 20 |
| 105 | Siddharth Nadimpalli | -0.215 | 22 |
| 106 | Lawry Flynn | -0.242 | 14 |
| 107 | Tom Power Horan | -0.250 | 16 |
| 108 | Bailey Arnott | -0.255 | 16 |
| 109 | Jack Munro | -0.267 | 22 |
| 110 | DJ Loypur | -0.274 | 12 |
| 111 | Haydn Barron | -0.292 | 12 |
| 112 | James Hydes | -0.304 | 20 |
| 113 | Tyler Wood | -0.316 | 20 |
| 114 | Brady Watt | -0.329 | 14 |
| 115 | Liam Georgiadis | -0.345 | 18 |
| 116 | Anthony Choat | -0.354 | 16 |
| 117 | James Gibellini | -0.386 | 24 |
| 118 | Jack Harrison | -0.395 | 18 |
| 119 | Matthew Griffin | -0.428 | 10 |
| 120 | Christopher Fan | -0.448 | 18 |
| 121 | Zachary Maxwell | -0.453 | 16 |
If you have + figure attached to you name, then by all means continue to send through your complaints!